Bitcoin begins the first full week of May focusing on yearly open support as it awaits a crucial US economic policy decision.
- The price of Bitcoin is trying to stay above its opening value for the year, despite a slight drop at the end of the week. Overall, experts are still optimistic about the future price movement of Bitcoin.
- The US Federal Reserve is making an important decision on interest rates this week, and it is expected that Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement will have a significant impact on the market.
- The increase in jobless claims and earnings from Coinbase are adding to the uncertainty of potential market volatility, especially as concerns about a recession are growing.
- Despite Bitcoin’s dominance reaching 65% for the first time in over four years, analysts believe that its reign may not last long.
- People are still excited about buying Bitcoin and the fear of missing out is increasing as people feel positive about it.
Bitcoin traders remain optimistic as long as the price stays above $93,500.
Bitcoin experienced selling pressure leading up to the May 4 weekly close, dropping to a low of $93,350 on Bitstamp before bouncing back.
The amount of money available for trading near the current price has increased, causing some buy orders to be partially filled because of a decrease in price.
According to CoinGlass, the biggest group of sellers for this cryptocurrency is at a price of $96,420.
Trader CrypNuevo shared on Twitter their analysis suggesting a possible increase in value in the short term.
The author is looking for two possible setups to trigger a trade: either when the price reaches a new local high of $98k and sees liquidations after reclaiming previous range highs, or when the price successfully retests the 1D50EMA from much lower levels.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noticed a gap in the Bitcoin futures markets on CME Group that could potentially act as a price target. These gaps have been closing within 1-3 days, making it important to keep an eye on. The gap in question is at $97,000.
Rekt Capital, a popular trader and analyst, is looking at the downside support for Bitcoin at $93,500, which is its yearly open price.
Bitcoin has been unable to surpass the lower high resistance level, as shown on a weekly chart of BTC/USD.
“In order for Bitcoin to reclaim its previous range, it must stay above the $93.5k Range Low.”
An analysis of Bitcoin suggests that it could continue to reach higher price points with some temporary setbacks, eventually hitting new record highs.
Bitcoin Price Discovery Roadmap
Bitcoin is trying to finalise its First Price Discovery Correction (green) to transition into its Second Price Discovery Uptrend (red)
(Prices and time horizons are not to scale)$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/yfY3h60Ywy pic.twitter.com/yahXUIpVkY
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 30, 2025
The Fed in Focus: Highlights from FOMC Week
The Federal Reserve decision on interest rates at the upcoming meeting on May 7th is the main focus for traders in the upcoming days. The Fed is currently holding rates steady despite economic risks and concerns of a potential recession. President Trump has been advocating for rate cuts, while the Fed remains cautious.
🇺🇸 FOMC: This Wednesday, the Fed will decide whether to cut, hike, or keep rates unchanged.
What’s your prediction? 👇 pic.twitter.com/cUkhGyHdIR
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) May 5, 2025
The market is paying attention to Federal Reserve Chair Powell this week due to pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, according to The Kobeissi Letter on X.
Despite tension surrounding the decision, markets are not expecting any surprises from officials. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows only a 5.2% chance of a rate cut as of May 5.
Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin and stocks typically experience a decline before Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings as traders hedge their bets on the outcome and future policy decisions of the Federal Reserve.
Cryptocurrency trader Michaël van de Poppe advises entering the market between $91.5-92.5K during a standard pre-FOMC correction.
Material Indicators stated that Powell’s language during the FOMC press conference would have a significant impact on the market, regardless of the final decision on interest rates.
Bitcoin Prices Plunge as Recession Fears Rise
Other important macro topics to watch for in the cryptocurrency and risk asset markets, beyond the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, include the initial jobless claims report on May 8 and the earnings report from leading US crypto exchange Coinbase.
Bitcoin’s value has started to be influenced by US employment data. If there is a major difference from what is expected, it could cause the value of Bitcoin to fluctuate significantly.
The labor market has been strong despite challenges like the US trade war, but there are increasing concerns about the economy entering a period of stagflation or even recession. Reports show that US consumers’ expectations of a recession in the next year have risen to 72%, the highest in 2 years. Other consumer sources also indicate a similar sentiment.
The negative outlook on the economy and finances is expected to cause people to spend less.
“All signs point to an economic slowdown.”
In a recent newsletter, trading firm Mosaic Asset pointed to the recent Q1 GDP miss as evidence that tariffs and trade wars are negatively impacting the economy.
Despite the uncertainty and turmoil caused by trade war headlines, the economy is showing resilience which is helping the S&P 500 to recover from a recent selloff triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
Bitcoin has seen a 15% increase since Trump implemented tariffs on April 2nd.
The End of an Era: Bitcoins Last Stand for Market Dominance
Crypto enthusiasts are getting excited for the next altcoin rally to begin. Bitcoin’s dominance in the market has reached 65%, its highest since early 2021.
Altcoin investors have been facing challenging conditions in the past two years, with Ether (ETH) receiving the most attention due to its significant growth.
ETH/BTC has reached levels not seen since 2019, and traders are predicting a longer trend change even with small changes in the market.
Bitcoin dominance crashes.
ETH/BTC starts to pump.
Then altseason starts.
Any questions? pic.twitter.com/SOuVWx7nLK
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) May 4, 2025
The prediction from Rekt Capital on May 1 suggests that Bitcoin Dominance is getting ready for its last phase in its overall upward trend before a significant drop.
“The goal is to reach 71%, currently at 64%. A final test will determine success.”
Rekt Capital believes that Bitcoin dominance tends to peak at 71% and the last altseason ended in 2024.
Some believe that the recent increase in Bitcoin dominance is different from previous patterns due to a growing institutional demand for BTC.
The Evolution of Bitcoins Investment Appeal
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at a neutral level, but analysts are warning that the fear of missing out (FOMO) may come back to the market.
On May 1, research firm Santiment reported a shift in social media sentiment towards Bitcoin price.
Social media was offering products at lower prices from $10,000 to $69,000 during April 6-18, 2025 after Liberation Day.
This is a good time to buy because prices have stabilized after reaching a temporary peak in April, and higher price predictions are now more common than lower ones.
Santiment warns that the fear of missing out (FOMO) from new investors could prevent Bitcoin from maintaining high prices for an extended period. Currently, discussions about Bitcoin make up about 25% of all asset topics, with more positive commentary on the rise.
This article does not give investment advice or recommendations. Investing and trading carry risks, so readers should do their own research before making decisions.
